Model-based characterization of interactions between plum pox virus strains from a field survey
Authors
Olivier, CottoDallot, Sylvie
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Jevremović, Darko
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Paunović, Svetlana A
Bonnot, Francois
Thébaud, Gaël
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Multiple pathogen strains often co-circulate within the same host population and may lead to multiply infected individuals. However, the characterization of the interactions between strains and of their epidemiological impact is still a burgeoning research field. Here we show how modeling multi-strain epidemiological dynamics provides a more reliable assessment of strain interactions in the field than statistical tests of independence. The constructed model, which accounts for orchard age and all possible strain combinations, was applied to test for interactions between three virus strains under the assumption of endemicity. The Serbian survey data used for the inference showed that sharka, caused by the plum pox virus (PPV), is widespread in the 91 sampled plum orchards and that three strains (M, D, and Rec) are present even as double and triple infections in the field. The observed co-infection frequencies were compared with their predicted frequency under the neutral/null hypothesis... that there is no direct or indirect interaction between strains. We showed that D+Rec coinfections were less frequent than expected in the neutral case but also, in contrast with model predictions, that D+Rec coinfection frequency decreased with the orchard age. Our results raise biological and epidemiological questions on the Rec strain of PPV and emphasizes the importance of coupling models and data to understand and predict dynamics in complex epidemiological systems.
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Book of Аbstracts : 12th international congress of plant pathology, August 20-25, 2023, Lyon, France, 2023, 456-457Publisher:
- Lyon : The International Society for Plant Pathology & the French Phytopathological Society
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Institut za voćarstvoTY - CONF AU - Olivier, Cotto AU - Dallot, Sylvie AU - Jevremović, Darko AU - Paunović, Svetlana A AU - Bonnot, Francois AU - Thébaud, Gaël PY - 2023 UR - https://refri.institut-cacak.org/handle/123456789/729 AB - Multiple pathogen strains often co-circulate within the same host population and may lead to multiply infected individuals. However, the characterization of the interactions between strains and of their epidemiological impact is still a burgeoning research field. Here we show how modeling multi-strain epidemiological dynamics provides a more reliable assessment of strain interactions in the field than statistical tests of independence. The constructed model, which accounts for orchard age and all possible strain combinations, was applied to test for interactions between three virus strains under the assumption of endemicity. The Serbian survey data used for the inference showed that sharka, caused by the plum pox virus (PPV), is widespread in the 91 sampled plum orchards and that three strains (M, D, and Rec) are present even as double and triple infections in the field. The observed co-infection frequencies were compared with their predicted frequency under the neutral/null hypothesis that there is no direct or indirect interaction between strains. We showed that D+Rec coinfections were less frequent than expected in the neutral case but also, in contrast with model predictions, that D+Rec coinfection frequency decreased with the orchard age. Our results raise biological and epidemiological questions on the Rec strain of PPV and emphasizes the importance of coupling models and data to understand and predict dynamics in complex epidemiological systems. PB - Lyon : The International Society for Plant Pathology & the French Phytopathological Society C3 - Book of Аbstracts : 12th international congress of plant pathology, August 20-25, 2023, Lyon, France T1 - Model-based characterization of interactions between plum pox virus strains from a field survey EP - 457 SP - 456 ER -
@conference{ author = "Olivier, Cotto and Dallot, Sylvie and Jevremović, Darko and Paunović, Svetlana A and Bonnot, Francois and Thébaud, Gaël", year = "2023", abstract = "Multiple pathogen strains often co-circulate within the same host population and may lead to multiply infected individuals. However, the characterization of the interactions between strains and of their epidemiological impact is still a burgeoning research field. Here we show how modeling multi-strain epidemiological dynamics provides a more reliable assessment of strain interactions in the field than statistical tests of independence. The constructed model, which accounts for orchard age and all possible strain combinations, was applied to test for interactions between three virus strains under the assumption of endemicity. The Serbian survey data used for the inference showed that sharka, caused by the plum pox virus (PPV), is widespread in the 91 sampled plum orchards and that three strains (M, D, and Rec) are present even as double and triple infections in the field. The observed co-infection frequencies were compared with their predicted frequency under the neutral/null hypothesis that there is no direct or indirect interaction between strains. We showed that D+Rec coinfections were less frequent than expected in the neutral case but also, in contrast with model predictions, that D+Rec coinfection frequency decreased with the orchard age. Our results raise biological and epidemiological questions on the Rec strain of PPV and emphasizes the importance of coupling models and data to understand and predict dynamics in complex epidemiological systems.", publisher = "Lyon : The International Society for Plant Pathology & the French Phytopathological Society", journal = "Book of Аbstracts : 12th international congress of plant pathology, August 20-25, 2023, Lyon, France", title = "Model-based characterization of interactions between plum pox virus strains from a field survey", pages = "457-456" }
Olivier, C., Dallot, S., Jevremović, D., Paunović, S. A., Bonnot, F.,& Thébaud, G.. (2023). Model-based characterization of interactions between plum pox virus strains from a field survey. in Book of Аbstracts : 12th international congress of plant pathology, August 20-25, 2023, Lyon, France Lyon : The International Society for Plant Pathology & the French Phytopathological Society., 456-457.
Olivier C, Dallot S, Jevremović D, Paunović SA, Bonnot F, Thébaud G. Model-based characterization of interactions between plum pox virus strains from a field survey. in Book of Аbstracts : 12th international congress of plant pathology, August 20-25, 2023, Lyon, France. 2023;:456-457..
Olivier, Cotto, Dallot, Sylvie, Jevremović, Darko, Paunović, Svetlana A, Bonnot, Francois, Thébaud, Gaël, "Model-based characterization of interactions between plum pox virus strains from a field survey" in Book of Аbstracts : 12th international congress of plant pathology, August 20-25, 2023, Lyon, France (2023):456-457.